Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
